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Wednesday, October 6, 2004
Opposition to tax cap increases, poll finds
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Opposition to the property-tax cap that will be on Maine's ballot Nov. 2 has grown significantly since June, according to a new statewide poll. The Strategic Marketing Services poll found that 44 percent of those surveyed do not favor it and 38 percent support it. Another 18 percent are still undecided. The poll also suggested strong opposition to a ballot proposal to ban the use of bait, traps and dogs in hunting bear. And Democratic U.S. Reps. Thomas Allen and Michael Michaud saw solid support in their bids for re-election in the 1st District and the 2nd District, respectively. The telephone poll of 400 likely voters was done between Sept. 23 and Sept. 27. The poll has a margin of error of 5 percentage points. The poll's results on the 1 percent tax cap are noteworthy because supporters of the cap were leading in a June poll by the same firm. But the results are not conclusive because there's only a six-point spread between opponents and supporters, and the poll's margin of error is 5 percentage points. In June, 35 percent of those surveyed said they support the cap and another 11.8 percent said they were leaning toward supporting it; 28.3 percent were opposed and another 4 percent were leaning toward opposing it. Another 21 percent said they weren't sure. Strategic Marketing Services did not include a bear-baiting question in its June poll. But the latest poll gives opponents of the ban a commanding lead. The poll found that only about 33 percent of those surveyed support banning certain types of bear hunting, while 50 percent oppose it and 17 percent are undecided. In the congressional races, Allen came in ahead of Republican challenger Charles Summers, 58 percent to 22 percent, with 20 percent of the voters in the 1st District still undecided. First-term Rep. Michaud has a smaller, but still hefty, lead over Republican Brian Hamel in the 2nd District, 51 percent to 21 percent, with 28 percentundecided. The poll has a seven-point margin of error in the congressional races because the sample size - about 200 voters per district - was much smaller on those questions than on the statewide questions. Activists on both sides of the tax cap noted that opponents have been running TV ads for two weeks while supporters have done no TV advertising. Phil Harriman of Tax Cap Yes! said opponents also have scored points with voters because municipalities and school districts have rolled out dire predictions about the cap's impact on their communities. Supporters of the cap are "not on the playing field" as far as advertising is concerned, said Dennis Bailey, spokesman for the opposition camp. Eric Cianchette, a leading proponent, said supporters will buy television time before the election, but he said he does not know when that will happen. Edith Leary, who is leading the opposition to the bear-baiting proposal, said opponents are "cautiously optimistic" heading into the final weeks of the campaign and the latest poll shows that "our education campaign seems to be getting through to voters." But Robert Fisk, who is running the campaign for the ban, disputed the poll's findings. He said a recent internal poll of 500 voters, done for his camp by Decision Research of Washington, D.C., and California, gave supporters of the ban a slight lead. Fisk said supporters are "feeling a lot of momentum." Marvin Druker, a political scientist at the University of Southern Maine's Lewiston-Auburn College, said support for the tax cap is shrinking as voters weigh the cap's possible impact on schools and municipal services. Druker said opponents of the bear-baiting ban "have done a better job of making their arguments" than supporters have.
Staff Writer Paul Carrier can be contacted at 622-7511 or at:
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